Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.288806 12.055076 13.991525 16.266482 18.859999 21.718478 25.101207
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 7.630311 10.042327 12.956644 16.710293 21.387007 26.989730 34.174235
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 5.969468 8.692519 12.268516 17.243302 23.908680 32.445074 44.103610
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.612701 7.364183 11.258193 17.055402 25.325351 36.533077 52.666033
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.520861 6.129627 10.087555 16.356154 25.816053 39.293109 59.601591
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.758421 5.207548 9.169967 15.808916 26.345003 42.031712 66.632834
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.305676 4.682898 8.755973 15.926276 27.813131 46.191627 76.006113
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.893303 4.133172 8.192049 15.686090 28.636260 49.382684 84.117344
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.707120 3.963270 8.249640 16.484444 31.210111 55.494931 97.205998
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.491713 3.686559 8.059689 16.799902 32.965088 60.389356 108.674024
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.283456 3.377813 7.753439 16.846071 34.225343 64.528138 119.166232
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.110224 3.107187 7.475390 16.897634 35.477464 68.719271 130.005136
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.052118 3.102866 7.766037 18.143155 39.141737 77.516183 149.564448
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.958464 2.991737 7.811859 18.900393 41.959572 85.047798 167.497913
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.871201 2.876980 7.830891 19.602075 44.735547 92.714086 186.203460
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.743767 2.619761 7.473503 19.433315 45.730722 97.130816 199.305714
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.606357 2.293982 6.888529 18.664471 45.387608 98.951785 207.704469
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.499861 2.029289 6.405330 18.055676 45.303292 101.239133 217.095140
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.439344 1.895361 6.241644 18.189833 46.848124 106.859572 233.223931
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.373419 1.721562 5.934491 17.920763 47.451604 110.600173 245.894556
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.352420 1.705336 6.075383 18.818191 50.817047 120.264900 270.881745
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.317826 1.626095 6.014575 19.172632 52.930952 127.424262 291.198963
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.279665 1.519612 5.850326 19.224533 54.321843 133.129303 308.869034